As brands gear up for the holiday season, one insight stands out: the window to win customers has opened early. According to Experian’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Report in partnership with GroundTruth, nearly 45% of consumers say they’ll begin holiday shopping before November. This shift matters more than ever in a climate of economic uncertainty and evolving shopper behavior.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Season Feels Different
Consumers are entering Q4 with caution. Only 22% of shoppers anticipate spending more than they did in 2024, while over a quarter expect to cut back (RetailDive). That means brands can’t rely solely on big deals or volume strategies — messaging needs to be smart, timely, and value-driven.
Yet despite the belt-tightening, shoppers are still willing to invest in aspirational purchases. For example, 58% of shoppers say they’ll travel more than five miles for luxury goods, suggesting that premium positioning and experiential marketing still carry weight (Experian).
The report also points to a “zigzag” pattern: consumers browse early, take pauses, and then resurface late (Experian Blog). That means your holiday funnel can’t be linear — it has to persist and evolve across weeks.
What This Means for Marketers
- Turn on campaigns now. October isn’t too early. Brands that activate campaigns this month gain first-mover advantage and can learn which offers, creative, and formats perform best before the bidding war hits.
- Emphasize trust and value. With budget-conscious shoppers, messaging around price, guarantees, and integrity will resonate. Don’t just push “discounts”—show how you offer real value.
- Apply AI and predictive tools early. The report encourages brands to test and optimize now, while CPMs are lower than during the Q4 surge.
- Be omnichannel-ready. Many shoppers still discover online but convert in-store — physical locations remain critical “validation touchpoints.”
- Segment intentionally. Use the early vs. late shopper split to stagger messaging, offers, and funnel nudges in ways that minimize cannibalization.
Final Thoughts
Holiday 2025 is not just another peak season — it’s testing marketers’ ability to anticipate, adapt, and persist. The old playbook of turn-it-on Thanksgiving week will leave you behind. The brands that win will be those that show up early, measure continuously, and build narratives of trust and value along the full buying journey.
